18:21If You Only Read One Book This Year, Make It This
Sandeep Swadia turns Annie Duke's Thinking in Bets into a working decision system, built on one uncomfortable claim: good results are bad teachers. A drunk driver who runs three red lights and gets home safely was taught something false at zero cost, and that same gap between decision quality and outcome quality is where most people quietly lose the ability to judge themselves. He runs his own career through it, sorting the job offer that made him a fortune and then cost him one into three verdicts: skill, pure luck, and a dumb mistake he refuses to launder as bad luck. Around it he assembles the tools, including a luck to skill dial you can only read honestly about a stranger, a two column table of known facts and hidden cards, the you want to bet test for any belief that feels certain, and EVA, his four step expected value framework that ends by scripting the disaster twelve months before it happens.
